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IKAR in Mass Media

Imports hard to avoid as Russian harvest falters

10 сентября 2010 года

MOSCOW, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Drought-stricken Russia's grain harvest is way down on a year ago so far in August, pointing toward the need for hefty imports by one of the world's biggest exporters and supporting grain prices on international markets.

Russia, last year the world's third largest wheat exporter, has harvested 40.3 million tonnes of grain by Aug 19, or 38 percent less than in 2010, Deputy Agriculture Minister Alexander Petrikov said in St Petersburg.

He confirmed the ministry's 2010 crop forecast of 65-67 million tonnes by an optimistic scenario and 60 million tonnes by a pessimistic one, and domestic consumption needs of 77 million tonnes.

The figures appear to put Russia's supply/demand balance on a knife edge, taking into account stocks estimated at between 21.7 million tonnes and 24 million as of July 1, and winter sowing needs.

Some 3.6 million tonnes had already been shipped abroad, according to analysts, before Russia's Aug.15 export ban came into force.

Analysts have estimated its imports at 1.5-2 million tonnes, while a report in Vedomosti daily last week said Russia could import at least 5 million tonnes .

The government has denied Russia, whose ambitions to transform itself into the world's largest grain exporter have been knocked by a severe drought in many producing regions that destroyed large swathes of crops, will need imports.

September wheat futures bounced more than 2 percent on Monday to $6.94-3/4 a bushel on extra export demand.

"Russia will import wheat, that is what the market is saying as they are not out of the woods yet," said Peter McGuire, managing director of CWA Global Markets in Sydney.

BUYERS LOOK ELSWHERE

Private clients from Russia's largest traditional buyer, Egypt, were heard buying an unusually large volume of French wheat. The loading of one of a string of French wheat cargoes bought by Egyptian state buyer GASC, meanwhile, had been brought forward from Sept 1-15, shipping sources said.

Rains have yet to soften the soil for large scale winter grain sowing, though they are expected on Aug.23-26 in European Russia, hard hit by the drought. The heat will move east to Siberia.

With prospects for winter grain unclear analysts are putting together scenarios pointing towards big imports.

Estimating a crop of 60 million tonnes, carryover stocks of 23 million and consumption of 77 million tonnes, as well as 3.6 million tonnes already exported, according to IKAR analysts , Russia will be left with carryover stocks of just 2.4 million tonnes by the end of the current crop year on June 30, 2011.

Taking into account the need to allocate some 11-12 million tonnes for winter sowing due to start in August, Russia appears unable to do without imports.

Analysts have said Kazakhstan and Ukraine may provide some grain to Russia.

The Russian province of Tatarstan has already asked to buy up to 0.5 million tonnes of grain in Belarus.

But Belarus Agriculture Minister Mikhail Rusy told reporters in St Petersburg that Minsk, which harvested less grain than last year, may provide a more modest volume.

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 32

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