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Russian corn, wheat output up in 2007/08 -attache

12 мая 2008 года

WASHINGTON, March 4 (Reuters) - Corn and wheat production in Russia during the 2007/08 marketing year are both forecast to increase, a U.S. Agriculture Department attache in Moscow said on Tuesday.

The report said corn production would be 3.950 million tonnes, up from 3.600 million tonnes in the 2006/07 marketing year. Wheat also is forecast to surge in 2007/08 to 49.370 million tonnes from 44.900 million tonnes. The marketing year for wheat began in July and October for corn.

"Preliminary forecasts of the 2008 crop indicate both sown area and use of inputs will rise, potentially boosting grain output above the 2007 level," the attache said.

Attache reports are not official USDA data. To read the full document, please go to: [http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/attache_lout.asp]

"Executive Summary Grain prices rose sharply in February despite imposition of prohibitive export tariffs that virtually halted trade in wheat and barley.

Preliminary forecasts of the 2008 crop indicate both sown area and use of inputs will rise, potentially boosting grain output above the 2007 level. Flour exports surged in response to the shutdown in wheat export sales. Minister of Agriculture Aleksey Gordeyev announced grain exports could reach 15 mmt for the period July 1, 2007, to July 1, 2008, but an anticipated extension of the prohibitive export tariff on wheat and barley should preclude reaching that level. Grain stocks on large grain farms fell more rapidly in January than a year earlier, but due to the larger 2007 harvest remained near year-previous levels. Production Two Russian analysts have published their first forecasts of the 2008 grain crop.

Vladimir Petrichenko of ProZerno (formerly WJ Interagro) is predicting 86.3 mmt clean weight from 46.6 mha sown area, including 51.3 mmt wheat.

Dmitriy Rylko of the Institute for Agrarian Market Research (IKAR) forecasts 85.8 mmt from 46.4 mha sown area, including 51.3 mmt wheat. Both note these are optimistic forecasts that assume normal conditions from February onward. The Russian Grain Union predicts a structure of grain plantings as follows: 55% wheat, 6% rye, 21.8% barley, 6.9% oats, 2.8% corn, and notes that Russia is trending toward a wheat/barley duoculture. Grain production in 2008 will be influenced by the following factors: - high returns on sunflower will result in expansion of sunflower production, putting downward pressure on other summer crops; - high returns on wheat and barley led to the highest area planted to winter grains since 2002 (15.64 mha less 0.90 mha winterkill to date), and will result in both more area planted to spring wheat and in higher use of chemicals and fertilizer (i.e., potentially higher yields), but this expansion and intensification will be dampened slightly by Russian government restrictions on wheat and barley exports that are lowering price expectations, as well as fertilizer costs rising faster than grain prices; - expansion of wheat and oilseed acreage will come at the expense of less profitable crops, e.g., sugar beets; - high fuel costs are accelerating adoption of minimum tillage practices, and this is helping to stabilize yields, mainly due to better moisture retention; - high prices received for the 2007 crop improved finances on large farms, creating an opportunity to upgrade production technologies; - lower than usual winterkill due to the mild winter means the expanded winter wheat and barley area will survive with potential better yields than in 2007. In other words, assuming normal weather conditions henceforth, wheat and barley production will likely be up based on both greater area and higher input use, but would have been higher still if not for the export restrictions."

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 48

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