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IKAR in Mass Media

Conference in Belokurikha: Russian experts about new crop 2008

27 февраля 2008 года

BELOKURIKHA, Russia, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Russia is expected to raise grain output this year from 2007 volumes as high world prices stimulate grain growers to increase the sown area, leading agricultural analysts and industry lobbyists said.

"An optimistic and very preliminary 2008 crop forecast is 85.8 million tonnes," Dmitry Rylko, general director of the independent Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) told a grains conference.

The latest official estimate of last year's grain crop is 81.8 million tonnes, which includes 49.4 million tonnes of wheat.

"Currently we see a (2008) harvest of 86.3 million tonnes," Vladimir Petrichenko, an analyst with the WJ InteAgro trading company, told the conference.

Alexander Korbut, vice-president of powerful industry lobby the Russian Grain Union, told the conference the union expected the crop to be around 85 million tonnes.

Andrei Sizov, general director of SovEcon agricultural analysts, said he also expected the grain crop to increase in 2008, but declined to provide an estimate. "Much will depend on the spring sowings area, as oilseed prices are rising faster than grain prices," he said.

AREA RISING

Petrichenko estimated the area sown with winter grains for this year's crop to have risen to 15.64 million hectares from 14.2 million. He said he expected winter-kill losses to be 0.9 million tonnes, compared to 0.8 million tonnes last season.

"We have witnessed an increase in the winter grain area and there is going to be an additional rise in the spring area -- both spring wheat and spring barley," he said.

He estimated wheat output would rise to 51.29 million tonnes in 2008 with the sowings area rising to 26.04 million hectares from 24.4 million.

"It is a fact that we have sown 1.5 million more hectares with winter grains. Winter wheat harvesting area alone may rise by 1.2-1.4 million," Rylko said.

Rylko estimated that the total area sown to grain for the 2008 harvest, including winter and spring grains, would rise to 46.4 million tonnes from 44.4 million for the 2007 harvest.

Petrichenko said barley output may rise to 17.39 million tonnes from 15.65 million this year with the sown area rising to 9.76 million hectares from 9.67 million. Rice output may rise to 744,000 tonnes from 709,000 tonnes.

Maize output may rise to 4.85 million tonnes from 3.95 million area with the sown area up to 1.75 million hectares from 1.57 million, Petrichenko said.

Rylko said: "Maize sowings will rise, but not much. Sowings may rise by just 100,000 hectares, maybe even by 150,000, but no more. The main obstacle is a lack of seeds."

Source: Reuters  |  #grain #Belokurikha   |  Comments: 0   Views: 62

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