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IKAR in Mass Media

Better forecast for Ukraine and Russian grain crops 2014

05 июня 2014 года

May gave brightened prospects for the 2014 grain harvest in Russia and Ukraine

Favourable weather in May has brightened prospects for the 2014 grain harvest in Russia and Ukraine, easing risks related to the lack of financing available for sowing, analysts and traders said on Monday.

The neighbouring countries are both large grain exporters via the Black Sea, shipping grain to North Africa and the Middle East. Despite limited lending for farmers due to Ukraine's political crisis, spring grain sowing has gone ahead at a normal pace.

"The situation is close to ideal," said a Kiev-based trader. He saw the potential for Ukraine's crop at 60 million tonnes or more. "We need some rain in June, and that would guarantee a record harvest."

According to a Moscow-based trader, rain late last week has improved the condition of crops in several Russian regions from normal to good and has eased the situation in a few regions from difficult to normal.

"The overall mood (of farmers) is very positive," he said.

Russia's agriculture ministry forecast the 2014 grain crop would be the largest in six years at 100 million tonnes, up from 92 million a year ago.

Ukraine's 2014 grain harvest may exceed last year's record output of 63 million tonnes, according to Ukraine's state weather forecasting centre.

"So far, the conditions have been favourable, and if there is more rain in June, then I would call the condition as brilliant for further improvement of the crop size estimates," another Kiev-based trader said.

Russia is expected to export 25 million tonnes of grain during the 2014/15 marketing year, which starts on July 1, flat year-on-year, according to the ministry. Ukraine grain traders' union UZA estimated its grain exports at 30 million to 32 million tonnes.

Russia's Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has slightly raised its 2014 grain crop forecast to 95 million tonnes from 94.5 million thanks to last week's rain.

"There was rain in some regions, but it's still needed in other regions," Dmitry Rylko, the head of IKAR, the Moscow-based agricultural consultancy, said.

RUSSIAN WEATHER CONCERNS LIMITED

Russia's Volga Federal district is likely to face a lack of soil moisture, the Russian state weather forecaster said last week. According to the Moscow-based trader, however, the district did receive rain during the weekend.

Weather in the major growing regions of Russia is expected to be warmer than usual in June with a normal level of precipitation.

Dry weather in some regions in recent weeks will not have a significant affect on the winter grain crop, another Moscow-based consulting firm SovEcon said in a note. "There are risks for the spring grain crop, but they are already taken into account in our forecast."

SovEcon has kept its forecast for the 2014 grain crop unchanged at 90 million tonnes, including 50 million tonnes of wheat.

Russia's southern and central regions, vital for wheat exports, are growing mainly winter wheat. According to SovEcon's index, the condition of winter grains plantings last week was slightly better than the average of recent years, while spring grains were doing slightly worse than in recent years.

Winter wheat accounts for around 95 percent of Ukraine's overall wheat production.

"Last week's precipitation has considerably improved the soil moisture for spring grains," UkrAgroConsult said in a note.

Russian farmers had sown 28.0 million hectares as of May 30, or 88 percent of the whole planned area for spring grains, which was 2.1 million hectares more than on the same day a year ago, according to data from the Agriculture Ministry.

Spring wheat was sown on 11.7 million hectares, or 90 percent of the whole planned area, and 1.7 million hectares more than a year ago.

KAZAKHSTAN

Kazakhstan, central Asia's largest grain producer, sows mainly spring grains. It had sown 11.1 million hectares as of May 29, or 73 percent of the whole planned area for spring grains, according to data from the Agriculture Ministry.

The ministry did not provide a 2014 grain and wheat crop forecast but said the area planned for spring wheat was 300,000 hectares smaller this year than last year after some farmers switched to sowing sunflowers. (Reporting by Polina Devitt in Moscow and Pavel Polityuk in Kiev; Additional reporting by Raushan Nurshayeva in Astana; Editing by Lidia Kelly and Jane Baird)

Source: Agri.EU  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 57

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