IKAR in Mass Media

Weather favours Black Sea grain crops, brightens forecasts

04 июня 2014 года

Favourable weather in May has brightened prospects for the 2014 grain harvest in Russia and Ukraine, easing risks related to the lack of financing available for sowing, analysts and traders said on Monday. The neighbouring countries are both large grain exporters via the Black Sea, shipping grain to North Africa and the Middle East. Despite limited lending for farmers due to Ukraine's political crisis, spring grain sowing has gone ahead at a normal pace.

"The situation is close to ideal," said a Kiev-based trader. He saw the potential for Ukraine's crop at 60 million tonnes or more. "We need some rain in June, and that would guarantee a record harvest." According to a Moscow-based trader, rain late last week has improved the condition of crops in several Russian regions from normal to good and has eased the situation in a few regions from difficult to normal.

"The overall mood (of farmers) is very positive," he said. Russia's agriculture ministry forecast the 2014 grain crop would be the largest in six years at 100 million tonnes, up from 92 million a year ago. Ukraine's 2014 grain harvest may exceed last year's record output of 63 million tonnes, according to Ukraine's state weather forecasting centre. "So far, the conditions have been favourable, and if there is more rain in June, then I would call the condition as brilliant for further improvement of the crop size estimates," another Kiev-based trader said.

Russia is expected to export 25 million tonnes of grain during the 2014/15 marketing year, which starts on July 1, flat year-on-year, according to the ministry. Ukraine grain traders' union UZA estimated its grain exports at 30 million to 32 million tonnes. Russia's Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has slightly raised its 2014 grain crop forecast to 95 million tonnes from 94.5 million thanks to last week's rain.

Source: Business Recorder | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 58

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