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→ IKAR in Mass Media → #70 IKAR in Mass MediaGrain lobby urges Russia to delay export curbs24 сентября 2007 года MOSCOW, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Russia should wait until January 2008 before limiting grain exports and selling from intervention stocks as a higher-than-expected crop would automatically regulate prices, the country's industry lobby said on Monday. Russian Grain Union President Arkady Zlochevsky forecast a 2007 grain harvest close to 80 million tonnes, higher than the government's latest estimate, and said any export tariff should be pegged to world grain prices. "We are categorically against interventions before the new year," Zlochevsky told a grains conference. Dmitry Rylko, director general of independent Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), told the conference he viewed interventions at this stage as "absurd and dangerous". "Government stocks are low and they may yet be needed in the second half of the current marketing year," he said. An agriculture ministry official said preparations for intervention sales and export curbs were in their final stages, but that no decision would be taken on their implementation until more detailed harvest data had been collected. "Their start is possible in a very short time. The approximate time may be decided this week, but it won't happen tomorrow," said Sergei Sukhov, acting head of the ministry's food markets regulation department. He said intervention sales should be accompanied by export restrictions but that determining what form these might take could take some time. "A more exact time for their start may be determined when we have crop data at least from the main producing regions. Today we don't even have a final forecast for the crop," he said. Russia's government regulates the domestic grain market with grain purchases if prices are too low and intervention sales if prices are too high. Such measures were likely to be accompanied by export limits, government ministers have said. World grain prices have rocketed to record highs this year as global stockpiles plunge to 25-year lows and bad weather affects harvests in several major grain-growing countries. INFLATION RISK Russian domestic prices have also risen, raising food prices and threatening to quicken inflation beyond government targets. To combat this, the Economy Ministry has proposed selling 1.5 million tonnes of grain, mainly wheat, from government stocks. Zlochevsky said a working group comprising representatives from the agriculture ministry and producers had agreed that export restrictions on wheat should be coordinated with sales to the market in order to keep grain inside Russia. But separate export restrictions could be imposed on barley, he said, as the barley crop is seen to be lower than in 2006. The grain union also believes a floating export tariff would be the most efficient method with which to restrict exports. "The rate of the tariff should be pegged to the world price level," the lobby said in a statement. Zlochevsky said that the working group had proposed a tariff scale between zero and 120 euros ($165.5) per tonne of grain. "Every increase of $20 in world grain prices will raise the tariff by 15 euros," he said, adding that the final rates of the tariff have yet to be agreed upon with the Economy Ministry. Zlochevsky's forecast for a grain harvest of 80 million tonnes this year is above the agriculture ministry's forecast of 76 million tonnes and last year's output of 78.6 million tonnes. "With domestic consumption of around 70 million tonnes, this leaves us with 10 million tonnes for export," Zlochevsky said. IKAR's Rylko said Russia may export 10-11 million tonnes of wheat and 1.5-2.0 million tonnes of barley. Rylko estimated Russia may produce 79.3 million tonnes of grain this year. This includes 47.5-48.0 million tonnes of wheat, compared with 44.8 million tonnes in 2006, 16.4 million tonnes of barley, down from 18.1 million tonnes in 2006, and 3.8 million tonnes of maize compared to 3.2 million tonnes in 2006."Rigid and extended export restrictions will undermine the stimuli to increase production efficiency and volumes," he said. Source: Reuters | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 59
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