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IKAR in Mass Media

Russia's new-crop wheat pressured by better harvest prospects

03 июня 2013 года

MOSCOW, June 3 (Reuters) - Prices for new-crop Russian wheat showed signs of weakness as improved weather lifted forecasts for the incoming crop, putting pressure on export and inland prices, analysts said.

Russia, historically the world's third largest wheat exporter, was hit by drought last year which slashed its crops and exports.

Its 2013/14 exportable surplus of wheat is expected to rise 45 percent, year-on-year, thanks to favourable weather, according to the latest Reuters poll.

Krasnodar region, Russia's main territory for wheat export via the Black Sea, will start the wheat harvesting campaign in a about a month, SovEcon said in a note. Winter barley harvesting starts in a few weeks.

Prices for new crop milling wheat were steady in a band of $265-$270 per tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis in deep-water ports last week, SovEcon added. Barley was at $255-$260 per tonne.

According to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), prices for new crop wheat with 12.5-percent protein content were quoted at $255-$257 per tonne on a FOB basis in the Black Sea, down from $270 per tonne a week earlier.

In the Azov Sea, prices for wheat with the same protein content fell to $228-$230 per tonne from $240 per tonne, it added.

Russia has exported more than 15 million tonnes of all grains, excluding legumes, since the start of the 2012/13 season on July 1 to the end of May, IKAR added in a note. Grain exports in May were likely to be close to 500,000 tonnes.

Benchmark November milling wheat on the Paris futures market was up 1.8 percent at 209.75 euros ($270) a tonne in afternoon European trading.

Farmers in the Krasnodar region were quoting prices for fourth-class milling wheat at 7,000 roubles ($220) per tonne at the gate now, while barley prices were quoted at 6,000 roubles per tonne, SovEcon added.

Demand for higher priced old-crop export grain remained weak as grain for later loading was cheaper. Prices for the fourth-class wheat were stable at 9,900 roubles per tonne on a carriage paid-to (CPT) basis in the deep-water port of Novorossiisk last week.

Maize (corn) prices were pegged at 8,200-8,400 roubles per tonne on a CPT basis in shallow-water and in deep-water ports, SovEcon added.

As to domestic markets, wheat prices in European Russia rose slightly last week for the first time in sixteen weeks due to low stocks.

"Grain supply is very limited on the market," SovEcon said. It expects Russia's carry-over stocks at a historically low level of about 9 million tonnes at the start of new 2013/14 marketing season on July 1. About 1 million tonnes of this amount would come in government stocks.

The average domestic EXW (ex-works) prices for third-class milling wheat rose 50 roubles to 9,050 roubles per tonne last week, while fourth-class milling wheat was up 25 roubles at 9,025 per tonne. Feed wheat rose 25 roubles to 8,700 roubles per tonne.

Prices for other major cereals were stable: milling rye was quoted at 6,850 roubles per tonne, barley at 8,000 roubles per tonne and maize at 8,250 roubles per tonne.

As for oilseeds, the domestic prices for sunflower seeds were up 225 roubles at 15,775 roubles per tonne, SovEcon said. IKAR pegged sunseed prices at 16,915 roubles per tonne, up from 16,510 roubles per tonne.

Export prices for crude sunflower oil were up $5 at $1,125-1,130 a tonne on a free-on-board basis, according to SovEcon, while IKAR quoted domestic crude sunoil price index at $1,195 per tonne, up from $1,172 per tonne.

Russia's domestic white sugar prices were down 100 roubles at 24,000 roubles per tonne, according to IKAR.

($1 = 31.9362 Russian roubles)
($1 = 0.7716 euros)

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 49

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