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Russian new-crop wheat prices fall as harvest prospects improve

10 июня 2013 года

MOSCOW, June 10 (Reuters) - Prices for new-crop Russian wheat fell for the second week in a row as rains improved prospects for the harvest and the country's exports, SovEcon agriculture analysts said on Monday.

Russia's 2013 grain harvest will rise 34 percent year-on-year, to 95 million tonnes, which will include 54.5 million tonnes of wheat, according to the Agriculture Ministry's forecast.

The ministry hopes that the increased harvest will allow the world's third-largest wheat exporter to replenish stocks after a drought last year and boost its exports.

"The market may be too optimistic regarding supplies of Russia's wheat during the new season," SovEcon said in a note. The independent research organisation sees the 2013 wheat crop at between 50 million and 52 million tonnes.

Low carryover stocks and the government restocking programme are likely to limit the exportable surplus during the 2013/14 season which starts on July 1, SovEcon added.

The Agriculture Ministry may buy up to 5 million tonnes of grain from the domestic market during 2013/14 to keep the country's exportable grain surplus in line with its own forecast of 18-20 million tonnes, it said last week.

Prices for new-crop milling wheat fell to a band of $250-258 per tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis in deep-water ports last week from $265-$270 per tonne a week earlier, SovEcon said in a note.

Benchmark November milling wheat on the Paris futures market was down 0.5 percent at 202.75 euros ($270) a tonne by 1049 GMT on Monday.

According to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), prices for Russia's new-crop barley were quoted at $253 per tonne, down from $255-$257 per tonne.

Demand for higher priced old-crop export grain was negligible, SovEcon said. It pegged maize (corn) prices flat at 8,200-8,400 roubles ($250-260) per tonne on a carriage paid-to (CPT) basis in shallow-water and in deep-water ports.

From the start of the marketing year on July 1, 2012 to the end of May, Russia has exported 15.1 million tonnes of grain, including 10.8 million tonnes of wheat.

It is likely to ship 16 million tonnes of grain, including 11 million tonnes of wheat and 1.9 million tonnes of maize for the whole season which ends on June 30, IKAR said.

On domestic markets, wheat prices in European Russia rose slightly due to low stocks.

The average domestic EXW (ex-works) prices for third-class and fourth-class milling wheat rose 25 roubles and 50 roubles, respectively, to 9,075 roubles per tonne last week. Feed wheat rose 25 roubles to 8,25 roubles per tonne.

Maize prices were down 25 roubles at 8,250 roubles per tonne, while prices for other major cereals were stable: milling rye was quoted at 6,850 roubles per tonne, barley at 8,000 roubles per tonne.

As for oilseeds, the domestic prices for sunflower seeds were up 375 roubles at 16,150 roubles per tonne, SovEcon said. IKAR pegged sunseed prices at 17,300 roubles per tonne, up 400 roubles.

Export prices for crude sunflower oil were stable at $1,120-1,130 a tonne on a free-on-board basis, according to SovEcon, while IKAR quoted the domestic crude sunoil price at $1,195 per tonne, flat week-on-week.

Export rapeseed prices were quoted at $550-560 per tonne on an FOB basis in the Black Sea, SovEcon said.

Russia's domestic white sugar prices were down 500 roubles at 23,500 roubles per tonne, according to IKAR.

($1 = 0.7564 euros)
($1 = 32.2100 Russian roubles)

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 62

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