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IKAR in Mass Media

Black Sea wheat export forecasts unchanged as risks rise

27 июня 2013 года

MOSCOW, June 27 (Reuters) - The Black Sea region's plans to increase its share of global wheat export markets by one third in the next marketing year are increasingly at risk due to late sowing and hot weather in some regions, analysts said.

The median wheat export forecast for the 2013/14 marketing year, which starts on July 1, was unchanged at 32 million tonnes as Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are still expected to boost crops after last year's drought, a Reuters poll of 12 traders and analysts showed.

The combined wheat crop of all three countries, which supply about a quarter of the world's wheat in good harvest years, was forecast to surge 43 percent from the previous year to 89.2 million tonnes, but the estimate was down 1 percent from a previous poll.

Active harvesting campaigns started this week. Russia has already harvested more than 1 million tonnes of wheat, with yields at 4.31 tonnes per hectare as of June 25, up from 3.08 tonnes per hectare last year.

But high temperatures are expected to persist in most regions of European Russia, with the possibility of wildfires during the coming days, the state weather forecaster said.

"Almost the whole map of the European part of the country is red due to high temperatures, which is bad for spring grains," Andrei Sizov, chief executive of SovEcon agriculture analysts said.

"Light rains improve the situation slightly, but they are not enough to replenish the moisture content in soil," he added. The moisture content is below the normal level in four main exporting regions - Krasnodar, Rostov, Stavropol and Volgograd.

Siberia is also at risk after its sowing campaign finished later than usual due to a late spring.

Siberia could start its harvesting campaign after mid-September when it may be already snowing in the region, compared with the usual start at the end of August, according to SovEcon.

"Risks that Siberia will start its harvesting campaign later than the optimal dates are rising," Sizov added, but Sovecon has not yet changed its wheat forecast from 51 million tonnes.

The poll showed Russia's 2013/14 exportable surplus of wheat was 16 million tonnes, up from the current year's 11 million tonnes. The 2012/13 marketing year lasts until June 30.

Russia's 2013 crop is expected to rise 42 percent to 54 million tonnes. The previous poll saw the harvest 0.5 million tonnes higher.

Ukraine has harvested about 1.5 million tonnes of wheat as of June 27, up from around 900,000 tonnes at the same date in 2012. It ALSO is expected to see heat and rain during the coming days.

The poll indicated that Ukraine's 2013/14 exportable surplus would go up to 8.5 million tonnes from near 7 million tonnes, with the 2013 crop expected to increase 29 percent to 20.2 million tonnes from the previous year.

Kazakhstan, central Asia's largest grain producer, is expected to export 7.5 million tonnes of wheat, up 15 percent year-on-year, with its crop up 53 percent at 15 million tonnes.

The following are detailed results of a Reuters poll on the outlook for 2013/14 wheat exports and crops in the Black Sea region (in million tonnes, * indicates updated forecasts):

                         Russia     Russia       Russia's
                        2013 crop    2013/14        2013/14
                                     exports  ending stocks
              Average        53.8       15.3            7.7
               Median        54.0       16.0            7.7
              Minimum        51.0       10.8            6.4
              Maximum        57.3       19.0            9.5
    Strategie Grains*        51.8       12.3            8.7
                IKAR*        54.0       16.8            7.7
 Russian Grain Union*        54.5       19.0            7.6
             Sovecon*        51.0       14.5            N/a
                 ODA*        53.5       12.8            8.5
             Prozerno        57.3       17.0            9.5
                USDA*        54.0       17.0            6.4
             Agritel*        51.8       10.8            6.5
 Russia's Agriculture        54.0       15.5            N/a
       ministry (new)                          
          Anonymous 1        54.5       16.0            9.0
          Anonymous 2        55.2       16.8            7.0
          Anonymous 3         N/a       14.8            6.5
                   
                           Ukraine      Ukraine      Ukraine's
                         2013 crop      2013/14        2013/14
                                         export  ending stocks
               Average        20.2          8.5            2.7
                Median        20.2          8.5            2.7
               Minimum        19.2          6.9            1.6
               Maximum        21.4         10.0            3.8
   Ukraine Agriculture        20.0          9.0            N/a
        Ministry (new)                            
                USDA *        19.5          8.0            2.3
             Agritel *        20.2          7.9            2.8
    Strategie Grains *        20.4          6.9            2.9
            Oda-Agri *        20.3         10.0            3.4
        UkrAgroConsult        20.2          8.5            2.1
               ProAgro        19.2          8.0            1.6
  State Weather Centre        19.3          N/a            N/a
    Ukrainian Agrarian        20.0          8.5            2.5
         Confederation                           
           Anonymous 1        21.4            9            3.8
           Anonymous 2        21.2          8.7            3.3
           Anonymous 3        21.0          8.5            2.4
                       
                  Kazakhstan   Kazakhstan   Kazakhstan's
                   2013 crop      2013/14        2013/14
                                   export  ending stocks
         Average        14.8          6.8            3.5
          Median        15.0          7.5            3.5
         Minimum        14.2          4.7            3.2
         Maximum        15.0          7.5            4.0
          USDA *        15.0          7.5            3.2
       Agritel *        15.0          7.5            4.0
      Oda-Agri *        15.0          7.5            3.2
       Strategie        14.2          4.7            3.7
        Grains *                           
 

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 51

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