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IKAR in Mass Media

Russia's wheat export prices fall ahead of new crop

20 мая 2013 года

MOSCOW, May 20 (Reuters) - Russia's wheat export prices have fallen in the past week ahead of the expected arrival of its new crop next month in much larger volumes, analysts said on Monday.

Russia, historically the world's No.3 wheat exporter, has been exporting in modest volumes after a drought slashed its grain crop last year and quickly depleted the bulk of its exportable surplus.

"The majority of grains keep falling in anticipation of the new harvest, while wheat shows the highest pace of decrease," SovEcon agriculture analysts said in a note.

Southern Federal District, the country's main wheat export region, usually starts the harvesting campaign in late June.

Prices for new crop milling wheat were quoted in a band of $265-270 per tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis in deep-water ports, SovEcon said.

Meanwhile, shipments of the old crop have already exceeded official forecasts for the current marketing year.

The number of buyers in deep-water ports currently is very limited due to a low level of offers to sell wheat, SovEcon said.

For the old crop, export prices for third-class milling wheat decreased by 200 roubles to 9,600 roubles ($310) per tonne in deep-water ports last week, it added.

As for shallow-water ports, export activity is heavy in the Azov Sea, although domestic resources of milling wheat seem to be almost exhausted, Dmitry Rylko, the head of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), said in a note. Ports in the Azov Sea still have access to stocks of exportable wheat.

IKAR pegged prices for wheat with 13.5 percent protein at $287-$290 per tonne in the Azov Sea.

Sovecon quoted prices as flat for third-class wheat at 8,900-9,500 roubles per tonne and also for fourth-class wheat at 8,700-9,200 roubles ($280-290) in shallow-water ports.

Chicago Board of Trade July wheat was down 0.07 percent to $6.82-3/4 a bushel, while Paris benchmark November milling wheat fell to an 11-month low on improving crop conditions.

Russia's new crop barley prices were between $255 and $260 per tonne on a FOB basis in deep-water ports, according to SovEcon.

Prices for maize (corn) were flat at 8,200-8,400 roubles per tonne on a carriage paid-to (CPT) basis, SovEcon said.

Russia exported 14.85 million tonnes of grain, excluding legumes, between July 1 and mid-May, IKAR said. It expected grain exports to reach 16 million tonnes, including legumes, for the 12 months to the end of June 2013.

This estimate matches the SovEcon forecasts and exceeds Russia's official estimate of 14.8 million tonnes, down from last year's 27 million.

To support domestic supply before the new crop arrives, the government has sold about 3.2 million tonnes of grain from its stocks since the 2012/13 season started on July 1.

It still has grain stocks of about 1.7 million tonnes and plans to cut them to about 1 million tonnes by the end of the season.

As for oilseeds, the domestic prices for sunflower seeds fell 75 roubles to 15,550 roubles per tonne, SovEcon said. Export prices for crude sunflower oil were up $5 at $1,110-1,115 a tonne on a free-on-board basis.

Russia's domestic sugar prices were up 300 roubles at 24,600 roubles per tonne, according to IKAR.

($1 = 31.4240 Russian roubles)
($1 = 0.7798 euros)

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 70

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