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IKAR in Mass Media

Russia grain aloof from rising world market-analysts

31 октября 2011 года

MOSCOW, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Most Russian domestic grain prices were little changed last week as they lagged behind the international upward trend, but analysts said an increase is possible in the future.

"A rise on the international wheat market does not mean a simultaneous rise on the domestic market," SovEcon agricultural analysts said in a weekly note.

"It is quite possible that Russian domestic market may be relatively stable or even keep declining slowly in the nearest future. But it is likely to follow the international trend with a certain lag."

On Friday, Chicago Board of Trade wheat prices ended up 2.3 percent, recording its third straight week of gains and taking the overall three-week increase to 6.4 percent.

SovEcon added that a solution of Greece's debt problems will strengthen the euro and thus will prop up dollar-denominated European wheat prices.

Last week, average EXW third- and fourth-grade milling wheat, as well as feed barley prices lost just 25 roubles ($0.84) per tonne to 5,825 roubles ($196.14), 5,625 roubles ($189.41) and 5,175 roubles ($174.26), respectively, in the European part of Russia, SovEcon said.

It said maize was an exception, as its prices fell by 300 roubles to 5,700 roubles in North Caucasus on expectations of a fresh bumper crop.

SovEcon said exporters kept CPT (including delivery) bid prices for fourth-grade wheat unchanged at deep sea ports at 7,000-7,200 roubles per tonne, while they lowered them by 100 roubles to 6,200-6,300 roubles at shallow water ports.

Traders said there was a rise in demand for third-grade wheat at shallow water ports. Ordinary wheat was sought at 6,600-6,700 roubles per tonne, while wheat with high proteine of 14.5 percent was sought at 6,900-7,000 roubles.

FOB price for wheat with 11.5 percent protein content rose to $244 per tonne from $235, mainly due to improvements in the world macro-economic situation, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said in a separate note.

Prices at Azov-Don shallow water terminals remained unchanged at $205 per tonne, same as maize, it said.

Russian grain market players complained last week about logistical problems, and some traders in the Central Black Soil areas, confronted with a shortage or railway wagons, started selling domestically the grain they have meant to export, IKAR said.

However, according to preliminary estimates, between July 1 and October 22, Russia exported a record high 11.6 million tonnes of grain, including 10.1 million tonnes of wheat, it said.

Last week Egypt, the main buyer of Russian wheat bought 120,000 tonnes of Russian cereal at $243.4 per tonne.

But Russian grain lost the following tender, at which 120,000 tonnes of Ukrainian wheat were bought at $247.92-$249.30.

Russian wheat was offered at higher prices of $256.45-$265.98 at the tender.

Analysts said average sunseed prices kept declining last week on rising supply from a new record crop.

Sunseed prices declined to $293 per tonne from $299, mainly in the central Russia and in the regions along the Volga river, but they were unchanged in the south, IKAR said.

"The decline shows the shortage of processing capacities," SovEcon commented. "In the regions along the Volga supply exceeds demand, while stability in North Caucasus reflects the region's proximity to ports."

SovEcon believes that demand from exporters for both sunseeds and sunoil will have a serious influence on prices in the current season.

Crude sunoil prices rose to $1,101 per tonne from $1,068 to $1101 per ton on exporters demand, IKAR said.

White sugar prices fell to 20,300 roubles per tonne from 20,800 but dollar-denominated prices rose due to a rise in the rouble rate.

($1 = 29.698 Russian Roubles)

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 45

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