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IKAR in Mass Media

Russian grain prices keep falling despite ban threat

19 октября 2011 года

MOSCOW, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Russian domestic grain prices continued a decline as harvesting approached its finish last week in spite of an announcement that grain exports may be curtailed if they exceed 23-24 million tonnes in the current season, analysts said on Monday.

However, some cereals dollar-denominated prices rose and some remained stable on a stronger rouble, they said.

"The government announcement about potential export restrictions after reaching 23 million tonnes threshold did not produce much impression on the market players," the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said in a weekly note.

The average EXW third-grade milling wheat price fell 125 roubles ($4.05) to 5,925 roubles per tonne in European Russia, fourth-grade by 150 roubles to 5,075 roubles and feed wheat by 50 roubles to 5,075 roubles per tonne, SovEcon agricultural analysts said in a separate note.

It said the feed barley price declined by 100 roubles to 5,250 roubles and feed maize by 350 roubles to 6,250 roubles per tonne.

The FOB prices for wheat with 11.5 percent protein content hovered within the range of $230-$235 per tonne in Novorossiisk, and in Azov sea and Don river shallow water terminals they lost about $3 to $197 per tonne, IKAR said.

IKAR said prices of standard fourth-grade wheat including delivery (CPT) to Novorossiisk fell to 7,300 roubles per tonne from 7,500, while SovEcon believes that the price fell even further to 7,200 roubles per tonne from 7,300-7,400.

"Traders say that exporters have accumulated large stocks of cereals," SovEcon said.

IKAR said that EXW wheat prices in southern Russia declined in roubles, but strengthened in dollars. Third-grade wheat rose by $6 to $196 per tonne, fourth-grade and fifth-grade by $5 to $188 per tonne and $175 per tonne, respectively.

Maize prices also declined in roubles, but in dollar terms they remained unchanged at $175 per tonne in dollars, IKAR said.

"The strengthening of the rouble is a negative factor for the domestic market," SovEcon said.

The Russian rouble recorded last week its biggest weekly gain since late 2009, propped up by tight liquidity before tax payments and by higher oil prices thanks to the global improvement in risk perception.

Average su roubles to 10,675 roubles per tonne in the European part of Russia on expectations of a new record crop, SovEcon said.

However, some major processors in the Central Black Soil region raised bid prices to 9,500 roubles per tonne from 9,000, it said.

SovEcon believes that current price levels will soon prompt demand for sunseeds from exporters even with an existing export duty of 20 percent of the customs value.

And IKAR said that there were reports of sunseed shipments to Belarus, which is part of a customs union with Russia and may import sunseeds without the duty.

IKAR said average sunseed prices in Russia declined in roubles, but remained stable in dollars - at $313 per tonne.

"The price declined substantially in the Volga Valley, which experiences an oversupply, and it was much higher in southern Russia, oriented at lucrative sunoil export markets," it said in the note.

Sunoil prices strengthened slightly in dollar terms to $1,072 per tonne from $1,046, IKAR said. FOB Black Sea prices rose to $1,070-$1,100 per tonne from $1,000-$1,050 a week before, SovEcon said.

($1 = 30.89 Russian Roubles)

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 44

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