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IKAR in Mass Media

Russian wheat export prices rise on slow arrival of new crop, quality concerns

14 июля 2025 года

MOSCOW, July 14 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose last week amid the slow arrival of the new crop and low yields in the southern part of the country, while export shipments accelerated slightly, analysts said.

The price for new crop Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in August was $229 per metric ton at the end of last week, up $4 from the previous week's prices, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

The SovEcon consultancy estimated new crop offers at $228-$230 per ton, compared with $225–$228 in the prior week.

"Later last week, wheat prices found support from growing concerns over the Russian crop outlook," SovEcon noted. As of July 4, yields in southern Russia, a key wheat-growing and exporting region, remained low.

Its analysts noted that yields will increase as harvesting progresses. Only 9% of the area has been harvested in the southern regions of Russia, compared to 40% last year at this time. In addition, the situation in southern Russia may be partially compensated by yields in the centre of the country and the Volga region, where they are above average.

Based on the results of the first week of July, analysts last week noted extremely low volumes of wheat exports from Russia at the beginning of the season, with harvesting starting slowly and farmers showing reluctance to sell at current prices.

According to SovEcon, the pace of shipments began to pick up last week.

Wheat exports were up to 0.16 million tons from 0.1 million tons a week before, it said.

SovEcon's wheat exports estimate for July is 2.1 million to 2.6 million tons in comparison to 3.9 million tons last year.

IKAR's wheat exports estimate for July is just over 2 million tons.

The export duty on wheat, which the Russian Ministry of Agriculture calculates weekly, will remain zero for the second week in a row until July 22.

"Despite zero duty and FOB price growth, export profitability is back in the negative zone due to higher purchase prices in ports on the back of growing demand from exporters and low supply from agricultural producers", Rusagrotrans said in a weekly note.

Other Russian data provided by SovEcon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
14,875 rbls/t
+175 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
34,125 rbls/t
-150 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
85,500 rbls/t
-500 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
33,000 rbls/t
0 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,100/t
+$10

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$673.94/t
+$1.18/t

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 2

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