IKAR in Mass Media

Russian wheat export prices down on improved crop forecasts

31 марта 2025 года

MOSCOW, March 31 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices fell last week amid improved crop forecasts for Russia and elsewhere, analysts said.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in late April-early May decreased by $4 to $251 a metric ton, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

The Sovecon consultancy placed prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content at between $250 and $254 a ton FOB, down from $252-256 the previous week.

"Timely rains in the European part of Russia in the next two weeks will be favourable for the development of winter and spring crops. Temperatures in the second week of the forecast will decrease to average levels after a long period of abnormally warm weather", rail freight operator Rusagrotrans said in a weekly note.

IKAR last week raised its forecast for this year's wheat harvest by 1.5 million tons.

"We believe it’s too early to consider this crop "good". At best, a poor crop may be on track to become a below-average one", Sovecon noted.

Weekly wheat exports were estimated last week at 0.43 million tons, up from 0.32 million tons the previous week due to a faster pace of shipment, Sovecon said. Sovecon has upgraded its estimate of March wheat exports by 0.2 million tons to 1.8 million tons, but it is significantly lower than the 4.8 million tons of exports in March last year.

IKAR has also again increased its assessment for exports in March, to 1.8 million tons from 1.4 million to 1.5 million tons a week before. The wheat export forecast for April is between 1.5 million and 1.7 million tons.

Rusagrotrans estimates March wheat exports at 1.85 million tons thanks to new sales with delivery in the second half of March amid higher export prices.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
16,350 rbls/t
+225 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
40,275 rbls/t
-275 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
94,000 rbls/t
-500 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
38,000 rbls/t
-400 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,120/t
+$5

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$691.88/t
-$1.25/t

Source: Reuters | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 8

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