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IKAR in Mass Media

Russian wheat export prices continue rise, but margins still negative, analysts say

24 февраля 2025 года

MOSCOW, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices continued their upward trend last week on the back of a stronger rouble and lower shipments, with analysts expecting growth to continue.

Prices have almost reached the level of late May 2024, when the global market reacted to potential crop losses after frosts in Russia, rail freight operator Rusagrotrans noted.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in late March was up $4 from the previous week at $251 a metric ton.

Prices are expected to rise slowly in the second half of the season, and at today's prices exporters' margins are still negative, he said, citing rouble strength.

The Sovecon consultancy estimated prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content at between $247 and $251 a ton FOB, up from $242 to $246 the previous week.

"Despite negative margins and a strengthening rouble, some exporters likely raised their bids to secure more grain amid limited sales from farmers," the agency said in a weekly note.

"We suspect that Russian exporters will continue to limit supply, providing support to the market, and we expect Russian FOB prices to rise."

Russia's export quota started to take effect on February 15. In addition, bad weather at ports continues to hold back shipments.

Weekly grain exports were estimated last week at 0.51 million tons, including 0.42 million tons of wheat. This was down from 0.57 million tons the previous week, when it included 0.42 million tons of wheat, Sovecon said.

Saudi Arabia’s GFSA purchased 920,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender. A substantial share is expected to be shipped from Russia, with an estimated FOB price around $250 a ton.

Sovecon estimated February wheat exports at 2.0 million tons, against 4.1 million tons a year earlier.

IKAR raised its estimate for wheat exports in February to between 1.8 million and 1.9 million tons from 1.6 million to 1.8 million tons a week earlier.

Strong frosts in the European part of Russia did not have serious negative impact on winter crops thanks to snow cover in many areas of the main regions for winter crops.

"In the short term, there are no improving conditions for the new crop, as precipitation in all winter wheat regions remains significantly below normal," Sovecon said.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
16,175 rbls/t
-25 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
39,050 rbls/t
+125 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
91,925 rbls/t
-575 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
40,100 rbls/t
+400 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,110/t
+$25

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$672.24/t
+$13.12/t

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 4

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