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IKAR in Mass Media

Russian wheat export prices keep rising amid declining export shipments, analysts say

17 февраля 2025 года

MOSCOW, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices continued to rise for a fourth consecutive week amid declining shipments as an export quota entered into force, analysts said.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in March was up $2 from the previous week to $247 FOB per metric ton.

"Prices have risen primarily due to a sharp reduction in wheat supply," he said.

The Sovecon consultancy estimated prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content and delivery terms at between $242 and $246 per ton, compared with $241 to $245 the previous week.

"Russian exporters need significantly higher FOB prices for acceptable margins", Sovecon said in a weekly note.

Russia's export quota started to take effect on February 15. Despite continued price increases, exporters' margins remain low. In addition, bad weather at ports has had a direct impact on shipments.

Fears of weather risks to U.S. and Russian crops pushed up prices on world markets late last week, SovEcon noted

The IKAR agricultural consultancy on Friday trimmed its overall forecast for Russia's 2025 grain crop to 129 million metric tons from 130 million tons previously, saying that approaching frosts posed a risk for winter crops.

At the start of this week, a sharp drop in night time temperatures is expected in many of Russia's main winter wheat producing regions.

Russia's chief meteorologist Roman Vilfand said that temperatures would be below 19 degrees Celsius in the southern central region, but that snow which fell the previous day would reduce frost risks.

Weekly grain exports were estimated last week at 0.53 million tons, including 0.46 million tons of wheat. This was down from 0.66 million tons the previous week, when it included 0.58 million tons of wheat, Sovecon said.

It estimated February wheat exports at 2.0 million tons, compared with 4.1 million tons a year earlier.

IKAR lowered its estimate of wheat exports in February to 1.6-1.8 million tons from 2.0-2.2 million tons earlier due to poor weather at Black Sea ports and the weather forecast for the coming week.

Rail freight operator Rusagrotrans also lowered its estimate of wheat exports in February to 2.2-2.3 million tons, down from 2.4-2.5 million tons.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
16,200 rbls/t
-100 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
38,925 rbls/t
+250 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
92,500 rbls/t
-825 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
40,100 rbls/t
+400 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,085/t
+$30

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$659.12/t
+$39.99/t

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 12

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