IKAR in Mass Media

Russia's IKAR trims 2024/25 wheat export forecast to 43 million tons

10 февраля 2025 года

MOSCOW, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Russia's IKAR consultancy cut its 2024/25 wheat export forecast on Monday to 43 million metric tons from 43.5 million tons, citing low stocks in the world's top wheat exporter and low margins as the main factors.

Russia's overall grain exports are set to fall by a fifth from last season's record 57 million tons owing to bad weather affecting crops, agriculture minister Oksana Lut said.

IKAR has been lowering its wheat export estimates from the 44.5 million tons initially forecast for the season last summer.

"This is related to our assessment of the availability of wheat that meets export quality and its distribution, high stocks beyond the Urals and relatively low in the south and centre of the country," said IKAR head Dmitry Rylko.

He emphasised that exporters' low margins were also partly responsible for the reduced forecast.

IKAR also cut its 2025 wheat production estimates to 82 million tons from 84 million tons previously in a baseline scenario, saying that forecast freezing temperatures in a snowless winter could affect crops.

"We see that in January-February there is no strong and proper precipitation, especially in the central and northern parts of the southern region of the country," Rylko said.

"Moreover, the coming frosts are not very strong, but they may affect the condition of already weak plants," he added.

Frosts are expected to hit the European part of Russia later in February.

IKAR also cut its wheat production estimate to 77 million tons from 79 million tons in a pessimistic scenario and to 87 million tons from 89 million tons in an optimistic scenario.

Source: Reuters | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 7

There are no comments yet. Be the first!

Only authorized users can comment.