IKAR in Mass Media

Russian wheat export prices up last week amid tightening supply

27 января 2025 года

MOSCOW, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices edged up last week due to tightening supply, while export shipments remained subdued.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the end of February was $236.5 per metric ton, up $2.5 from the previous week.

Prices are being affected by dwindling supply, although demand also remains very limited, he said.

The Sovecon consultancy put prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content and delivery terms at between $235 and $238 per ton, compared with $237 to $240 the previous week.

"Russian FOB prices are expected to remain mostly flat or trend slightly lower. Supply remains limited at these levels," Sovecon said.

From Feb. 15, a very low export quota of 10.6 million tons of wheat for the second half of the season to June 30 will be applied on the Russian market.

Weekly grain exports were estimated last week at 0.66 million tons, including 0.56 million tons of wheat. That was up from the previous week's 0.47 million tons of grain, including 0.39 million tons of wheat, Sovecon said.

The agency raised its January wheat exports estimate by 0.1 million tons to 2.1 million tons against 3.6 million tons a year earlier.

IKAR estimates January wheat exports at 2.2 million to 2.5 million tons, down from 3.8 million tons in December. Rail carrier Rusagrotrans forecasts wheat exports of 2.4 million tons in January.

Models suggest substantially warmer weather this week, despite earlier forecasts of a severe cold snap in late January and early February, Sovecon wrote in a weekly note.

Temperatures may drop to around -20 degrees Celsius (-4 Fahrenheit) in parts of the Volga River Valley, but a decent snow layer is seen preventing any major winter kill.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
15,575 rbls/t
+50 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
38,050 rbls/t
-225 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
97,350 rbls/t
-2,825 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
40,500 rbls/t
+800 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,050/t
-$5

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$605.45/t
+$14.63/t

Source: Reuters | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 2

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