IKAR in Mass Media

Russia's grain export quota expected to shrink by two-thirds in 2025

14 ноября 2024 года

MOSCOW, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Russia's grain export quota, set to be in place from February to June next year, could be nearly three times smaller than the 29 million tons a year earlier, due to the high pace of exports in recent months and a worse-than-expected harvest, experts said.

Russia allows grain exports quota-free from July to January, the first half of the export season, and then introduces quotas among some 260 domestic traders authorized by the authorities to sell grain in international markets.

Russia's IKAR consultancy anticipates export quotas in the second half of the 2024/25 season to be 11.5-12.0 million tons.

"The calculation is based on the export rates, crop estimates, and domestic needs," said IKAR's head, Dmitry Rylko, as quoted by the Interfax news agency.

Andrei Sizov, head of SovEcon consultancy, forecasts a quota of 10 million tons.

Igor Pavensky, head of the think tank at the main Russian grain rail carrier Rusagrotrans, estimated the quota at 9-10 million tons, "taking into account current export rates and forecasts for December and January."

Market participants expect the official size of the grain quota to be announced in January. The official estimate of the export potential for the new season is 55-57 million tons of grain.

Russian firms have been supplying grain to the international market at a near-record pace in recent months despite a lower harvest due to bad weather as well as low global prices.

New export terms announced in October and, sources said, a return to minimum export price recommendations by the Ministry of Agriculture also helped accelerate shipments last month.

Arkady Zlochevsky, head of the Russian Grain Union, estimated Russian grain exports this season at 25.1 million tons as of Nov. 1.

Russia introduced export quotas in 2020 to protect the domestic market. From 2021, the quota is applied only in the second half of the season from Feb. 15 to June 30.

At the start of 2024, the original quota of 24 million tons was increased by a further 5 million tons against the backdrop of the previous season's record grain exports, estimated at no less than 72 million tons.

Only 76% of this quota was used, according to Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut, implying penalties for traders which did not fulfil their quota.

Source: Reuters | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 7

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