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IKAR in Mass Media

Russian wheat export prices and shipments continued decline last week

23 января 2024 года

MOSCOW, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices continued to decline last week following a drop in global markets, while shipments also fell amidst challenging weather conditions, analysts said.

The informal restriction of the export price by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture also remains one of the influencing factors, they said.

The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the second half of February to the first half of March was $238 per metric ton, down $4 from the previous week, the IKAR agriculture consultancy reported.

According to IKAR, last week's drop in prices on world markets overlaid the price dynamics, while weather conditions continue to restrain shipments.

The situation in the Red Sea has not yet had a significant impact on Russian grain exports, said IKAR head Dmitry Rylko.

The Sovecon agriculture consultancy pegged the same class of wheat at $240-243 a ton FOB compared to last $243-246 a week ago.

The global wheat market dropped sharply at the beginning of the week and has been gradually recovering since, the agency noted.

Last week, Egypt’s state grains buyer GASC bought 300,000 metric tons of Russian wheat again, as in two previous tenders, at $265 FOB (270-day payment delay).

Russia exported 0.65 million tons of grain last week, down from 0.75 million tons the previous week. The exports included 0.58 million tons of wheat (0.64 million tons a week ago), Sovecon wrote, citing port data.

Sovecon lowered its January wheat export forecast by 0.2 million tons to 3.6 million tons versus 3.9 million tons a year ago, Sovecon wrote.

"Russian outstanding wheat export (contractual volumes registered by exporters at National Mercantile Exchange (NAMEX) tumbled this week to 1.9 million tons (the lowest since early November) from 3.2 million tons a week ago," Sovecon noted.

"This could support the popular 'no demand' bearish narrative but we think it’s a neutral/bullish story. Russia’s sales are modest not because there is zero global demand but because AgMin is trying to limit sales at current prices," it added.

"The problem is current slow sales are unlikely to be fully offset later because of infrastructure bottlenecks implying that the market could be estimating total 2023/24 exports too optimistically."

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
12,425 rbls/t
-25 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
23,775 rbls/t
-150 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
71,250 rbls/t
-1,575 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
35,300 rbls/t
-200 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$790/t

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$654.18/t
+$12.14/t

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 23

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