IKAR in Mass Media

Export prices of Russian wheat continued to decline amid high supply

07 июня 2023 года

Export prices of Russian wheat continued to decline last week, as did global benchmarks, amid continued ample supply on world markets, including high export volumes from Russia. The price of Russia’s new wheat crop with 12.5% protein content, delivered free on board (FOB) from the Black Sea, was assessed at $225 a tonne compared to $230 a tonne the previous week for the old crop, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said. The Russia-focused agricultural consultancy Sovecon estimates total Russian wheat exports in May at 4.1 million tonnes, compared to 1.2 million tonnes in May 2022 and 1.5 million tonnes on average.

Sovecon has raised its Russian wheat export forecast for the 2023/24 season to 45.7 million tonnes, up by 2.7 million tonnes. The consultancy added that total grain exports were expected to reach a record high of 57.2 million tonnes. The wheat export forecast for the new season has been revised due to increased harvest estimates and statements by the Ministry of Agriculture that it has no plans for intervention purchases implying bigger market supply. According to port data, weekly grain export totalled 0.73 mmt (1.07 mmt a week ago), including 0.65 mmt (0.97 mmt) of wheat.

Russia exported 730,000 tonnes of grain last week compared to 1.07 million tonnes a week earlier, including 650,000 tonnes of wheat compared to 970,000 tonnes a week earlier, Sovecon wrote in its weekly note, citing port data. As of June 1, farmers seeded 28.2 million hectares of grains compared to 26.4 million hectares in 2022, including 13.2 million hectares.

The spring wheat seeding campaign is mostly over, Sovecon noted. “The Urals and Siberia were mostly dry again this week …

The Urals and Siberia seeded 7.5 million hectares of spring wheat out of a total 13.2 million hectares. This is becoming a bigger problem every week – we could revise the spring wheat forecast lower in the next crop update,” Sovecon said. Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

 Product:              Most recent data:    Change from week
                                                     earlier
 - Domestic 3rd class      11,100 rbls/t            0 rbls/t
 wheat, European part
 of Russia, excludes
 delivery (Sovecon)
 - Sunflower seeds         21,375 rbls/t         -125 rbls/t
 (Sovecon)
 - Domestic sunflower      66,325 rbls/t       -2,350 rbls/t
 oil (Sovecon)
 - Domestic soybeans       30,400 rbls/t            0 rbls/t
 (Sovecon)
 - Export sunflower               $710/t              -$30/t
 oil (IKAR)
 - White sugar,                $750.90/t              -$5.54
 Russia's south
 (IKAR)

Source: Reuters | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 17

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