• IKAR in Mass Media

Where the margin is 2025
July 17-18, Moscow

 

 → IKAR in Mass Media → #313

IKAR in Mass Media

Russia may export 7 mln T grain in 2011/12

09 февраля 2011 года

MOSCOW, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Russia could ship around 7 million tonnes of grain to world markets next year but protective measures could be imposed to stop exporters selling too much if an export ban is lifted, a leading analyst said on Tuesday.

"Of this some 6.5 million tonnes could be wheat, 500,000 tonnes barley and 100,000 tonnes maize," Dmitry Rylko, director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), told an agricultural conference.

This volume could be potentially available for export if the harvest reaches 82-88 million tonnes, Rylko said.

The Agriculture Ministry is forecasting a 2011/2012 harvest of 85-87 million tonnes after 60.9 million tonnes in the current agricultural year in which Russia was hit by its worst drought in over a century.

The former world No.3 wheat exporter harvested 97 million tonnes of grain in 2009 and 108 million tonnes in 2008. It had to impose a ban on grain exports from Aug. 15, 2010 to July 1, 2011. Only flour exports were allowed from January this year.

"If the weather is favourable and we are able to harvest 85 million tonnes, Russia could restore its export potential," Deputy Agriculture Minister Sergei Korolyov told the conference.

He said this crop year Russia's grain supply would total 90 million tonnes, more than its consumption of 72-74 million tonnes. At the start of the new crop year in July Russia will have carry-over stocks of over 10 million tonnes, Korolyov said. Rylko said that Russia's government had four options for the export ban after July 1 to prevent a domestic grain deficit.

One option is to let the ban expire, unlikely unless the harvest exceeds 85 million tonnes. Another option is to extend the ban for another year and gradually lift it. The third option would be to extend the ban until the end of 2011, then lift it. A less likely option would be setting export quotas, which would require a lot of administrative effort, Rylko said.

Rylko said that he was optimistic about the new crop prospects because some 500,000 hectares of land sown with winter grains in the south of the country proved to be in a better condition than earlier expected.

Winter crops in most of Russia were well covered with snow, he said.

RECORD OILSEED VOLUMES

Russia's oilseed crops are expected to rebound in 2011, led by an increase the sunseed harvest to 7.5 million tonnes from 5.34 million tonnes in 2010 after a catastrophic drought, Rylko said. The rise will result from an increase in the sowings area.

In a presentation to the conference he said the soybean crop would increase to 1.5 million tonnes from 1.2 million tonnes this year. Rapeseeds are expected to rise to 900,000 tonnes from 672,000 tonnes this year.

But Russia's rye supply was expected to remain in deficit, necessitating imports into next year.

Russia may also refine more than 4 million tonnes of beet sugar in 2011, a national record, the sugar lobby head said.

"We will produce over 4 million tonnes," the head of the Russian Sugar Producers' Union, Andrei Bodin, said at the conference. "Exactly how much we will know in May." He said, the increase will also result from larger sowings area.

GOVERNMENT TO PROVIDE 6 MILLION TONNES OF GRAIN

Soaring grain prices -- a key reason for the export ban -- have started to slow and in some regions prices have started to decline since the government announced plans to distribute grain and sell stocks at intervention tenders. Russia will start selling grain on Friday, Feb. 4, at intervention tenders, Korolyov said.

"We will sell 2.5 million tonnes of food and feed grain. In total the government is planning to sell 5.5, maybe even 6 million tonnes of grain" before the beginning of the new crop year, he added.

The remainder will be distributed to drought-hit regions at a low fixed price.

Source: Reuters  |  #grain #oilseeds   |  Comments: 0   Views: 78

There are no comments yet. Be the first!

Only authorized users can comment.