IKAR in Mass Media

Russian wheat price decline slows after month-long slide

24 февраля 2020 года

* Russian FOB prices fall for the 4th week running
* Pace of decline slows
* Weather conditions good for the 2020 crop
* SovEcon sees Russia's 2020 wheat crop at 83-87 mln T

MOSCOW, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices registered a fourth consecutive weekly decline last week, dragged down by competition with other major exporters, but the pace of the fall has slowed, SovEcon agriculture consultancy said on Monday.

Global commodities markets are under pressure from risks related to the coronavirus outbreak.

But the prospects for the 2020 Black Sea crop look good so far with 83-87 million tonnes of wheat expected in Russia, higher than for 2019, and 26-28 million tonnes expected in Ukraine, roughly flat year-on-year, SovEcon added.

Russian wheat with a 12.5% protein content, loaded from Black Sea ports, fell by $2 to $218 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, SovEcon said. Barley was down by $2 to $190 a tonne.

"The decline in the market has slowed down as Russian wheat regains its competitive edge," SovEcon said in a note. A week earlier it registered a $6 fall.

Global benchmark Chicago wheat futures Wv1 slid for a fourth consecutive session on Monday as fears over the rapid spread of the coronavirus outbreak beyond China depressed commodities and shares.

Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine along with neighbours such as Romania compete for supplies of their wheat to Africa, the Middle East and Asia via the Black Sea.

In Russia, weather conditions for the 2020 crop are good with temperatures above the norm, SovEcon said, adding that the Central, Volga and parts of the Southern regions saw some precipitation last week. More is expected within two weeks.

Russia exported 27.0 million tonnes of grain, including 23.3 million tonnes of wheat, between the July 1 start to the 2019/20 season and Feb. 20, SovEcon said, citing customs data. Total grain exports were down 19% from a year earlier.

To see SovEcon's February export estimate, click here

Other Russian data provided by SovEcon and IKAR, another agriculture consultancy in Moscow:

Product:	Price at the end of last week:	Change from end of 2019
- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (SovEcon)	12,125 rbls/t ($189)	-125 rbls
- Sunflower seeds (SovEcon)	19,025 rbls/t	-125 rbls
- Domestic sunflower oil (SovEcon)	44,700 rbls/t	-425 rbls
- export sunflower oil (SovEcon)	$690/t	-$10
white sugar, Russia's south (*IKAR*)	$318.5/t	+$0.9