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IKAR in Mass Media

Markets teetering at support levels

10 апреля 2017 года

Wheat

The Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies lowered its 2017 crop estimates to 64-69 million metric tons. This is down from a previous estimate of 67-73 million metric tons. Two week forecasts show a dry pattern in Europe and Russia.

The April 4 U.S. Drought Monitor shows improvement through much of Oklahoma and Kansas. Subsoil moisture has been replenished with the recent south central plains system. Kansas shows 68 percent adequate or surplus and Oklahoma shows 54 percent adequate or surplus. Snow, 1-3 inches, is forecast for western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle in the next few days.

The first release of 2017 NASS weekly crop progress reports was Monday. Kansas shows 43 percent good to excellent and 20 percent poor to very poor. Oklahoma was 41 percent good to excellent and 17 percent poor to very poor. Texas was 39 percent good to excellent and 17 percent poor to very poor. Colorado was 39 percent good to excellent and 26 percent poor to very poor. Each of these states showed 4-5 percent improvements over the previous week's in state ratings. Arkansas is rated 70 percent good to excellent and Illinois 65 percent good to excellent, so the soft red crop seems to be off to a great start. As a sum of the 18 major winter wheat producing states, 51 percent is rated good to excellent compared to 59 percent last year. Poor to very poor is 14 percent compared to 7 percent last year.

Corn

Trade reacted positively to the USDA report that put corn acres at 90 million acres for the 2017 year. Export inspections were solid again for corn. Corn export inspections were the third highest of the year and have been very strong for the last three months. The USDA reported that corn had another good week of export sales, but the trade largely ignored that news.

Upside is currently being limited to mini rallies as most traders seem to be focused on the large stocks still on hand. Ample stocks of corn will continue to deter large rallies until we find some weather to trade this spring. South American crops appear to have good yields. The trade will now put its focus on weather in the U.S. and continue to keep an eye on South America's crop. For the week ending April 6, May corn was down 3.5 cents and December corn was 2.25 cents lower.

South America is looking at a record corn crop as their second crop corn planting has a great start and continues to get timely rains. Pollination for much of Brazil's second crop starts in April and over half typically pollinates the last half of April. Rains are starting to fall in Argentina, helping some dry areas, but also rising the alarm to potential flooding if rains don't shut off like last year. According to private analyst UkrAgroCunsult, Ukraine is online for a large corn crop too that could hit another record of 25-26 million metric tons. Weather is not concerning yet as we start off the spring planting season in the U.S.

Ag groups and producers will have their eyes on the U.S./People's Republic of China Presidential summit that started on April 6. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be meeting for the first time after Trump's election to talk trade and foreign policies.

Corn weekly export inspections were 58.1 million bushels for the week ending March 30. This is above 43 million bushels for the same week a year ago. Inspections for 2016-17 totaled 1.312 billion bushels, up 70 percent from the previous year and well above USDA's projected 17 percent demand increase.

Ethanol production is still showing strength as this is the 23rd straight week of production over 1 million barrels. Ethanol production for the week ending March 31 averaged 1.019 million barrels per day. This is down 3.32 percent versus last week and up 4.41 percent versus last year.

Soybeans

Weekly export sales totaled 32.2 million bushels with 17.7 million bushels for the 2016-17 marketing year. This was well above the 700,000 bushels needed this week and raised the total sales to 2.026 billion bushels, above USDA's March demand projection of 2.025 billion bushels. Weekly shipments of 27.7 million bushels were more than double the 13.4 million bushels needed in this week's report. Outstanding sales fell to 284.9 million bushels, 131 percent larger than last year.

Additionally, soymeal export sales came in at a sizeable 229,100 million tons. Soyoil sales were also very strong at 22,400 million tons. Reports are coming in of the Chinese getting back into the cash market and securing Brazilian cargoes with the drop in market prices. U.S. soymeal is also very attractive to the Chinese at current wide basis levels.

Weekly export inspections totaled 24.4 million bushels for the week ending March 30. This was well above the 8.3 million bushels for the same week a year ago. Inspections for 2016-17 total 1.724 billion bushels, up 12 percent from the previous year and above USDA's projected 5 percent increase.

Technically, $9.40 is a very important level as we are at eight month lows. Of note is the fact that a slight carry had developed from July to November. This had only occurred one other time since 2012. This carry quickly disappeared after two trading sessions.

Drier weather is expected in Argentina over the six-10-day forecast. This will help harvest. The market is still struggling with the bearish acreage and stocks numbers from the March 31 report. U.S. soybean acreage came in at 89.5 million compared to 83.4 million last year, a 7 percent increase. U.S. soybean stocks came in at 1.73 billion bushels, up 13 percent from last year. Usage was estimated at 1.16 billion bushels, down 2 percent from last year. For the week ending April 6, the May contract was down 3.25 cents at $9.415. November soybeans were down 1.5 cents to $9.5075.

Canola

For the week ending April 6, canola May futures in Winnipeg, Manitoba, were down $1.20 Canadian to $485.70 Canadian per metric ton. The Canadian dollar traded slightly lower to 0.7458. This brings the U.S. price to $16.43 per hundredweight. Cash bids in Velva, N.D., were $16.25 per hundredweight for April and $16.42 for May. Enderlin, N.D., bids were $17.09 for April-May and $17.23 for June. Hallock, Minn., bids were $16.77 for April and $16.84 for May. Fargo, N.D. bids were $17.10 for April and $16.90 for May.

Barley

Cash feed barley bids in Minneapolis were at $2.05, while malting barley received no quote. Berthold, N.D., bid is $2.00, and CHS Southwest bid is at $2.25 in New Salem, N.D.

Durum

Cash bids for milling quality durum are $5.75 in Berthold, N.D., and at $5.50 in Dickinson, N.D.

Sunflower

Cash sunflower bids in Fargo were at $14.90 for April and May. For the week ending April 6, soybean oil was 51 cents lower at $31.27 on the May contract.

http://agweek.com/

Source: agweek.com  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 51

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